Suchergebnisse

This report identifies lessons learned from looking at the use of internal collaborative tools across the Intelligence Community, especially across the four biggest agencies: Central Intelligence Agency, Defense Intelligence Agency, National Security Agency, and National Geospatial Intelligence Agency.

The aim of this research was to concentrate on consumers of intelligence and ask how they might be better served by analysis whose focus is longer term or more strategic than the current reporting that dominates today's intelligence production. These proceedings report on a workshop, held on July 1, 2010, attended by distinguished current and former policymakers as well as intelligence officers. The list of participants is provided in Appendix B. Appendix A describes related project research conducted by the authors into how strategic analysis is done and presented in other domains of analytic activity

Three issues with far-reaching causes and consequences, climate change, water scarcity, and pandemics, are examined with attention to their national security implications and impacts on the global commons. The authors aim to trigger new ways of thinking about the complex challenges of these issues. Because their effects are mostly the result of individuals and states acting out of self-interest rather than harmful intent, these three issues are treated as "threats without threateners." With sources and solutions that cross national and regional boundaries, multiple parties working together are more effective than unilateral action. In all three areas, risks are hard to assess, in both severity and time frame; therefore, mustering political will and coalitions for action is inherently difficult. The paper describes four overlapping clusters of policy approaches, international negotiations, coalitions of the willing, transcommunity networking, and anti-fragile approaches, and their relative successes and limitations. Considered one of the policy approaches with the greatest potential for tackling interconnected global challenges, anti-fragile systems do not just cope with change or uncertainty; they benefit from them. They search for alternatives that attract new participants, scale to accommodate those new participants, and create positive feedback loops that enable them not only to perform as well as or better than legacy systems but to continually improve over time. Using suggestive examples to illustrate each type of approach, the paper builds a case for the evolution of policy away from fixing problems and toward new possibilities and combinations of methods to address threats that are both chronic and acute

The National Intelligence Council's 2008 report "Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World" projects what the world will look like in 2025 based on recent trends. This paper asks: How should U.S. policy adapt now to account for these trends and the future that will result from them? The author explores such issues as climate change, defense, international relations, and the structure of the federal government.

A study of the involvement of organized-crime and terrorist groups in product counterfeiting. Case studies of film piracy illustrate the problem of criminal-and perhaps terrorist-groups using this new high-payoff, low-risk way to fund their activities. Cooperation among law enforcement and governments worldwide is needed to combat intellectual-property theft, which threatens the global information economy, public safety, and national security

The CIA's Global Futures Partnership and the RAND Corporation convened aseries of four one-day workshops to examine how to better integratealternative analysis into the analytic process. The basic assumption of theworkshops was that "transnational" issues, such as terrorism, present adifferent set of analytic challenges than more traditional intelligencetopics targeted primarily on nation states

The world of intelligence has been completely transformed by the end of the Cold War and the onset of an age of information. Prior to the 1990s, US government intelligence had one principal target, the Soviet Union; a narrow set of 'customers', the political and military officials of the US government; and a limited set of information from the sources they owned, spy satellites and spies. Today, world intelligence has many targets, numerous consumers - not all of whom are American or in the government - and too much information, most of which is not owned by the U.S. government and is of widely varying reliability. In this bold and penetrating study, Gregory Treverton, former Vice Chair of the National Intelligence Council and Senate investigator, offers his insider's views on how intelligence gathering and analysis must change. He suggests why intelligence needs to be both contrarian, leaning against the conventional wisdom, and attentive to the longer term, leaning against the growing shorter time horizons of Washington policy makers. He urges that the solving of intelligence puzzles tap expertise outside government - in the academy, think tanks, and Wall Street - to make these parties colleagues and co-consumers of intelligence, befitting the changed role of government from doer to convener, mediator, and coalition-builder